To Follow-On or Not to Follow-On . . .
This article was written by Ham Lord, Chairman of Launchpad Venture Group and Co-Founder of Seraf-invstor.com and Christopher Mirabile, Angel Capital Association Chair Emeritus, Managing Director at Launchpad Venture Group and Co-Found of Seraf-investor.com. iiM utilizes the Seraf platform for investor reporting.
As your angel career develops, and you start to build a larger portfolio of companies, you are increasingly asked to make follow-on investments. Not only do companies need investment to get off the ground, the faster they grow, the more cash they need. Whether to follow-on, and how-to follow-on, are questions which have long given rise to angel debate.
Christopher and I are both believers that follow on investments are essential to achieving good returns. We firmly defend and negotiate for pro-rata rights to participate in future financings. Our overall perspective is that with your earlier checks you are basically buying options on a front row seat which comes with the right to add more “smart money” into the winners as they begin to show promise.
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Our bias is backed up by observational data. During the first couple years, most of an angel’s checks go into shiny new companies, but after a couple years, there tend to be more and more follow-on checks in the mix. Based on the behaviors we have seen in our own portfolios, observing many serious angels first hand, as well as the aggregate data we have seen from professional investor behavior in Seraf, we've observed experienced angels tend to have only about 30% to, at most, 50% of their aggregate investment dollars in “first checks” into a company and about 50% to as much as 80% of their money has gone into second, third and even later checks. We’ll tackle that topic in depth here, but I’ll start out by confessing to bias right up front.
We feel that, over time, a successful investor should be able to look at the average amount of money into each failed investment and compare it to the average amount of money into each successful investment and see a ratio of at least 2:1 to 4:1 of dollars into winners over losers. In cases where an angel has really significant amounts of money to put to work, it might approach 7:1 to 10:1.
So if the hypothesis is that an angel should be biased towards follow-on investments, that still does not answer the question of how an angel actually decides which ones are “winners” and merit follow-on investment. What is the process of actually deciding to follow on or not? What should you look at and how should you decide?
Christopher has personally invested in a ton of startups, and as the Managing Director of Launchpad he organized and facilitated countless follow-on rounds for his investing colleagues. Let’s see if he has any perspective to share on the follow-on decision-making process.
Q: Christopher, how do you decide whether to follow-on? Do you have a framework you use?
I should start out by saying that this decision is almost never cut-and-dried. Companies typically come back for money long before it is truly clear that they out of the woods. This is particularly true of that crucial “second check.”
Companies looking for a second check from you usually present a thorough mix of positive accomplishments and negative surprises. So, unless you are just going to follow your gut instincts, some kind of decision-making process is needed to make sense of the mix of plusses and minuses.
The process I use, and recommend, is probably best analogized to a decision-tree. The first question is whether you are in an offensive or defensive mode.
- Offense is where a company is doing well and you are looking to maintain or increase your ownership position.
- Defense is where a company has clear potential, but is struggling to bring in needed money; the terms for the new money are intentionally or unintentionally dilutive, or even punitive, to existing investors who do not put in additional money.
In defensive situations like that, where you believe the company really has potential, an investment might be justified because it could protect (or even enhance) the value of your existing investment. For example, I have seen deals where early investors who put in their full pro-rata were rewarded by having all of their stock elevated to a pari pasu position with the top of the preference stack, whereas investors who didn't were left at the bottom of a now even more top-heavy stack. If you are feeling good about the company's prospects, that is an opportunity to potentially enhance the value of your holdings.
Fortunately really defensive “pay to play” situations are not common and each one tends to have a pretty unique fact pattern you are probably going to need to weigh on a stand-alone basis. So I will focus mostly on offense situations. Many of the analyses and concepts applicable to the offense situation can actually help in defense situations too.
Offense situations typically present the classic follow-on conundrum. The company is doing reasonably well (it’s pretty rare for a company to nail or exceed their forecasts - those cases are pretty clear cut green lights), and you need to decide whether to put additional money in. My decision framework really has three main elements, each of which has its own analysis:
- Reconfirming there is still sufficient upside potential forward from this round.
- Reconfirming the downside risk at this point is still acceptable.
- Reexamining the opportunity cost of this investment given current climate.
In the next issue of this newsletter, we’ll continue the article.